Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

Every 100% YoY increase in oil prices in the last 50 years has preceded a US Recession. Why this time will be any different?


Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

Oil prices are not as high as they seem if we account for inflation. We have seen bigger crises in the past mostly in the late stages of the economic cycle.


The effects of higher oil prices in the early stage of an expanding economy might not lead to a recession right away


Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

US Consumer direct spending on energy products has been declining in recent decades.


Higher prices might lead to higher inflation and possibly stagflation rather than a recession.


Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

The US is not dependent on Russian oil. While prices may be higher globally, there's room to increase supply from other sources.



Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

One option would be to remove sanctions on Venezuela.


Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

Another one would be to produce more oil at home


Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

This War (and oil crisis) could be a boon to the US oil and gas industry as Europe will be more affected. The US can finally deliver the "Freedom gas" to Europe


Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

European wars are generally good for the US economy. The effects of the higher oil prices might be offset by higher investments in energy, defense, cybersecurity...


Will higher oil prices lead to another recession?

We are 2 weeks into this war and the situation is still very chaotic. I wouldn't speculate on oil prices or a recession.


A recession can certainly happen. But there's also the scenario where it doesn't happen.

52 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All