Every 100% YoY increase in oil prices in the last 50 years has preceded a US Recession. Why this time will be any different?
Oil prices are not as high as they seem if we account for inflation. We have seen bigger crises in the past mostly in the late stages of the economic cycle.
The effects of higher oil prices in the early stage of an expanding economy might not lead to a recession right away
US Consumer direct spending on energy products has been declining in recent decades.
Higher prices might lead to higher inflation and possibly stagflation rather than a recession.
The US is not dependent on Russian oil. While prices may be higher globally, there's room to increase supply from other sources.
One option would be to remove sanctions on Venezuela.
Another one would be to produce more oil at home
This War (and oil crisis) could be a boon to the US oil and gas industry as Europe will be more affected. The US can finally deliver the "Freedom gas" to Europe
European wars are generally good for the US economy. The effects of the higher oil prices might be offset by higher investments in energy, defense, cybersecurity...
We are 2 weeks into this war and the situation is still very chaotic. I wouldn't speculate on oil prices or a recession.
A recession can certainly happen. But there's also the scenario where it doesn't happen.