New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDU Stock Analysis


EDU Stock Analysis

Catalysts:

  • Fragmented market in China with 20% of children attending private schools (190 000 private schools in total), as the market leader, can gain more market share (if regulators allow it)


Risks:

  • Chinese government enacted a new law banning for-profit after school tutoring for K-12 in July 2021

  • Several new regulations in recent years, lowering the margins of the company

  • Company expects that new regulations will cause a drop of 50-60% in revenues

  • Delisting of Chinese stocks in the US (stock also traded in Hong Kong)

  • Currency volatilities and volatility of Chinese markets


Financial Analysis:


EDU Stock Analysis

Valuations:

  • My personal Biases:

  • Think stock could make short-term recovery based on the news but that would be only speculating and not investing

  • Doesn’t see management coming up with a good enough solution to the upcoming headwinds

  • Assumptions:

  • Use the 60% fall in revenues that they are projecting for 2023-2026

  • 50% fall in revenues for 2022 (counting the few months where they had normal operations)

  • Use the same average profit margin of 12%

  • FCF margin on average was 10 pb above profit margin but much of this FCF was from deferred revenue (upfront payments) and this will also be lowered by around 60%. Therefore, FCF margin is expected to be only 4 pb above profit margin, that is, 16%

  • Revenue growth of 5% per year after 2023

EDU Stock Analysis

  • Discount rate of 20%

  • Terminal growth rate of 3%

  • Margin of safety of 30%


EDU Stock Analysis

  • Exit Multiples based on P/FCF Ratio

  • FCF 40% higher in 2026 in bull case and 20% lower in 2026 in bear case

EDU Stock Analysis

Conclusion

  • Overvalued and expected returns not worth it

  • Speculating rather than investing if wishing that price might go up based on the news


Read the full Research and Analysis: https://ishfaaqpeerally.teachable.com/courses/662813/lectures/36207621

EDU Stock Analysis

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