Yield Curve Inversion - Recession Coming?


Normally, each time the yield curve is inverted, we see a recession in less than 2 years. The 10-year - 2-year spread is now negative, which means that the yield on the 10-year treasury bonds is lower than that on the 2-year treasury bonds. This happens when investors expect the Federal Reserve System to raise interest rates, thus, causing a recession. Will we see a recession this time?


If inflation persists, the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates rapidly and it can lead to a recession.


The Fed is not expecting a recession anytime soon since they mostly follow the 2-Year - 3-months spread and it is increasing. The Fed prefers this indicator since they have more control over short-term rates.


With one indicator pointing towards a recession and another telling us a different story, it is hard to predict what will happen. And we better listen to Warren Buffett and buy great businesses at discount prices, rather than trying to predict macroeconomics.



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