Business Description:
57% of 2020 revenues from Admission vs 60.3% in 2019
29% of 2020 revenues from Food and Beverage vs 31% in 2019
13% of 2020 revenues from others vs 8% in 2019
2020 revenues down by 77% from 2019
$2.15 billion goodwill impairment in 2020
Wanda, which used to own 23% of company with 47% of voting powers converted their Class B shares into Class A shares, giving them only 9% ownership with 9% voting rights
This share conversion along with other share issuance by the company lead to a 380% share dilution in the TTM
21% of shares outstanding are short and company targetted by WSB speculators
Catalysts:
Recovery from pandemic and recession
Targeted by speculators forcing a short squeeze to happen
Risks:
Speculative and very volatile stock
May never go back to pre-pandemic numbers
Growth of streaming platforms
High debt with negative tangible book value for years
Financial Analysis:
Revenues of $1.24 Billion in FY20 down from $5.47 Billion in FY19
Operating loss of $1.54 Billion in FY20 vs operating income of $235 million in FY19
Net loss of $4.58 billion in FY20 vs net loss of $149 million in FY19
Free Cash outflow of $1.30 billion in FY20 vs FCF $60 million for FY19
Balance Sheet
Total assets: $10.4 Billion ; total liabilities: $12.7 Billion; book value: ($2.29 Billion)
Cash: $813 million, debts: $5.45 Billion, current assets: $1.01 billion, current liabilities: $1.58 billion
Valuations:
My personal Biases:
I made over 3300% on average on the GameStop Short Squeeze and AMC has nothing of the same fundamentals that GameStop had
Assumptions for base case:
40% of 2019 revenues in 2021
70% of 2019 revenues in 2022
Revenue growth of 10% annually till 2025
Positive FCF in 2023, 5% margin
Terminal Growth rate of 0%
Discount Rate of 18%
Exit multiple analysis not necessary to see that stock is expensive
Conclusion
Stocks massively overvalued
Short Squeeze already happening with no catalyst to invest at such a price
Here's the full analysis: https://ishfaaqpeerally.teachable.com/courses/662813/lectures/32880958
