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  • Writer's pictureIshfaaq Peerally

Alaska Air Group 3Q21 Earnings Analysis

Alaska Air Group Stock Analysis


  • Had marketable securities (MS) for a rainy day and now facing a storm better than competition

  • Domestic aviation will recover faster than international

  • To acquire 68 new Boeings by 2023 with option of buying 52 more by 2026, selling all Airbus

  • Joined Oneworld Alliance recently


  • Recovery from pandemic taking longer than expected and people are still fearful of traveling

  • Higher oil prices

  • Inflation

  • Business travel may take years to return to normal

Financial Analysis

Alaska Air Group Stock Analysis


  • My personal Biases

    • I have been buying this stock since March 2020

    • 5.5% of my portfolio

  • Assumptions

    • 70% of 2019 revenues in 2021, 85% in 2022, 105% in 2023 with growth of 5% annually till 2025

    • Operating Cash Flow and Revenues number for 4Q21 average of company estimates

    • Operating cash flow margins of 15% for 2022-2025

    • CapEx ignoring acquisition of new planes (focus on maintenance CapEx)

Alaska Air Group Stock Analysis

  • Discount Rate of 12%

  • Terminal Growth rate of 2%

Alaska Air Group Stock Analysis

  • Exit Multiples analysis

    • Based on 2025 Owner’s earnings

    • P/OE range of 8-24

    • Bull case 20% higher OE and 10% lower for Bear case

Alaska Air Group Stock Analysis


  • Around intrinsic value and future expected gain around 15%

  • Downside small and yet to gain from resumption in normal economic activities

  • Still a Buy

Alaska Air Group Stock Analysis

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